Virginia Democrats had a plan. A beautiful, ruthless, back-room plan. Take a congressional map that currently splits 6-5 in their favor, gut it like a Thanksgiving turkey, and turn it into a 10-1 blowout before anyone noticed.
One problem: Virginians noticed.
The Heist That Wasn’t
Here’s the scheme in plain English. Back in 2020, nearly 66 percent of Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment creating a nonpartisan redistricting panel. The whole point was to take map-drawing out of the hands of politicians who’d use it like a personal carving knife. Voters wanted fairness. They got it. They voted for it overwhelmingly.
Democrats looked at that voter-approved system and said, “Cute. We’re doing something else.”
Their plan was to ram through a new constitutional amendment handing redistricting power back to state lawmakers — who just happen to be Democrats in both chambers. Then they’d redraw the lines to strip Republicans of four out of five House seats. An April referendum was scheduled to seal the deal until a Republican lawsuit slammed the brakes.
That’s not redistricting. That’s a carjacking with a legislative gavel.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Fresh polling from Roanoke College just dropped a piano on the whole operation. Eight hundred Virginia residents were surveyed across the state, and the results read like a rejection letter from the electorate.
Sixty-two percent of respondents support the current nonpartisan redistricting method. When asked how they’d vote in a referendum on the Democrats’ proposed change, 52 percent said they’d vote to keep the current system. Only 44 percent backed the Democrat power grab.
Those numbers almost perfectly mirror the 2020 vote that created the nonpartisan panel in the first place. Virginians made up their minds six years ago, and they haven’t changed them. Democrats just assumed nobody was paying attention.
Surprise.
The Spanberger Problem
And then there’s the new governor. Abigail Spanberger rode into Richmond on a “moderate” magic carpet, promising sensible leadership and bipartisan vibes. One month in, that carpet is already on fire.
Her approval rating sits at 53 percent. Sounds okay until you realize Republican Glenn Youngkin left office at 54 percent — after a full term. Spanberger is underwater compared to her predecessor before she’s even unpacked her office. That’s not a honeymoon. That’s a marriage counselor on day two.
And why? Because the “moderate” immediately killed cooperation with ICE, hiked the minimum wage, and started promising tax increases that have major employers eyeing the exits. Boeing is reportedly already planning its withdrawal from the state. Nothing says “open for business” like chasing defense contractors out the door while rolling out the red carpet for tax hikes.
The National Audition
Despite all this, Democratic leadership hand-picked Spanberger to deliver the party’s official rebuttal to Trump’s State of the Union. That’s not a reward for governing well. That’s a 2028 presidential audition, and the party is dressing her up for the part before she’s proven she can run a state without setting it on fire.
They’re betting she can sell herself as the face of a “new” Democratic Party — reasonable, relatable, not from the coasts. The problem is that her first month in office looks like a progressive wish list with a centrist sticker slapped on the front. Virginia voters are already seeing through it, and national voters will too.
What They’re Really Afraid Of
The gerrymander scheme tells you everything about where Democrats think they stand heading into 2026. If they believed their ideas could win on merit, they wouldn’t need to rig the map. You don’t redraw district lines at 10-1 because you’re confident in your message. You do it because you know your message is losing and the only path to power runs through a courtroom and a rigged referendum.
Virginia was supposed to be the model. Flip the state, gerrymander the map, lock in a decade of dominance, and export the playbook nationally. Instead, voters are rejecting the scheme by margins that match the original vote to stop exactly this kind of thing.
The Road Ahead
The lawsuit is still working through the courts. The referendum is on ice. And every day this stays in the news, more Virginians learn that their own elected officials tried to override a constitutional amendment they voted for because the results weren’t convenient.
Democrats wanted to rewrite the rules before anyone looked up from their phones. But the polls say voters were watching the whole time.
Turns out, you can’t gerrymander your way out of a trust problem. Especially when 62 percent of the electorate just told you to put the scissors down.