Conservatives have been watching the global stage with a special vigor throughout this political cycle, with a close eye to the high profile election in France. Of course, we all know the outcome – the left of center upstart Emmanuel Macron prevailed over the more experienced Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen, a career politician with real credentials and contacts around the world, was preparing to move France into more nationalist direction, a move that would have probably preserved the lives of the most recent Paris shooting.
However, too few conservatives really understand the opportunity that was lost as Macron decidedly swept into power.
The Western world is much more connected than the average person thinks, and a Le Pen victory would have given a great deal of leverage to conservative policy here in the United States.
There is a reason that President Trump offered explicit support to Le Pen before Macron took the victory (even as he congratulates him now) – the administration understands the economic and political connection between our two nations. It is time for all of us to have this understanding as well.
American Business in France
France is a significant trading partner with the United States – the third largest in all of Europe. According to Fox News, France imports around $30 billion worth of goods from the U.S. and exports over $47 billion.
This business may suffer from the liberal open border policy that Macron is sure to uphold. We have all seen the effects of that, which will only drive any savvy business person to greener and safer pastures.
Le Pen was the leading candidate in the issue of renegotiating France’s position within the European Union. If she had won, there would be strong possibility the country would strengthen its business ties with America, and distancing itself from the economically crippled EU trading bloc.
Security Concerns
Although France is incredibly capable in terms of its military, it has been hopelessly lax in protecting itself from the inside. Its capital has suffered two devastating terrorist attacks within a year of each other, and citizens on both sides of the fence are getting tired of looking over their shoulders in what is supposed to be an international city.
The United States has many integrated military structures alongside France that are sure to suffer a hit with Macron at the helm. If he is anything like Obama, who actually endorsed him, the French military will likely be receiving less funding precisely when it should be taking arms against enemies that have already crossed its borders.
Social Upheaval
The people of France, as liberal as they may be, cannot escape the fact that they have now put themselves in a more dangerous situation physically. With terrorism on the rise throughout the continent, no country seems to be taking the lead in helping those responsible to leave. The result could be catastrophic social upheaval in the country (think Boston Bombing), which would cause political and economic unrest as well.
France has never been known as a country of citizens to treat outsiders very warmly. Colloquially, the French are said to scoff at any foreigner who dares to speak any language but their own inside of the country. Social circles are tight, and tourists come to expect that they will be treated as outsiders.
That attitude is what makes this vote so unexpected. The Trump administration is said to have prepared for the possibility; however, it is difficult for one to see how Trump will be able to meet with Macron, an open Obama supporter who has met with the former president on multiple occasions. Macron has also pledged his support to “uphold liberal values around the world.”
Looking to the Future
So far, the markets in the United States have not responded negatively to Macron’s victory, but the effects of his new political regime have not yet reached their peak. There is plenty of time for investors to lose confidence in France and its investments, and with it, investments across the entire European continent.
Many analysts are concerned that this would send the international markets into a tailspin, much like the effects of seeing a much smaller and less relevant Greece lose its stability.
Trump and his administration will likely have to work around France rather than see them as a viable political and military ally for the time being.
This will weaken the influence of the United States in the region, but you can bet they will be calling us back when the next attack hits. It is now time for conservatives to simply sit back and wait for liberals to reap the rewards of their choice.
~ Conservative Zone
