Read this sentence slowly, because your brain might reject it the first time: Republicans are leading the California governor’s race.
Not trailing respectably. Not within striking distance. Leading. Both of the top two Republican candidates are ahead of every Democrat in the field, with four months to go before the state’s jungle primary. In a state that Joe Biden won by 29 points. In a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger. In a state that Democrats have treated as their private ATM and ideological playground for the better part of two decades.
Something has broken in the matrix. And for the first time in a long time, Democrats in California aren’t laughing.
The Numbers
Emerson College’s latest poll, conducted February 13-14 among 1,000 likely voters, shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the field at 17%. Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Eric Swalwell are tied at 14%. Democrat Katie Porter trails at 10%.
Hilton gained five points since December. Swalwell gained two. Bianco gained one. Porter lost one. The trend line is moving in one direction, and it’s not the direction Democrats expected.
A second poll conducted by Tavern Research — pushed through Democrat Xavier Becerra’s campaign — showed Bianco leading at 20%, Hilton at 12%, and Swalwell at 10%. Even the Democrats’ own polling has Republicans on top.
Among Republican voters, support is consolidating: Hilton at 38%, Bianco at 37%. Among independents — the voters who decide close elections — Hilton leads at 22%, Bianco at 12%, and Swalwell at just 4%. Thirty percent of independents are undecided, which means the swing voters haven’t committed to anyone yet, and the Democrat leading the race can’t crack single digits with them.
The Jungle Primary Problem
California’s top-two primary system means the two highest vote-getters in June advance to the general election, regardless of party. Usually, this system benefits Democrats because their voter registration advantage guarantees at least one — usually two — Democrats in the final round.
Not this time. Elections expert Paul Mitchell estimated there’s roughly a 12% chance two Republicans advance to the general election. Twelve percent doesn’t sound like much, but in California, the fact that the probability is above zero is the story. Democrats have more than ten candidates splitting their vote. Republicans have two serious contenders consolidating theirs.
If the Democratic vote stays fractured and Republican voters unite behind one candidate — or even split evenly between two — the math gets very uncomfortable for the blue team very fast.
Hilton understands this and is pressing the point. He’s warned that the greater risk is actually two Democrats making the general unless Republicans consolidate behind one candidate. He’s also going after Bianco, attacking him over allegations of kneeling with Black Lives Matter protesters during the 2020 riots and calling for him to exit the race.
It’s an internal fight that could either sharpen the eventual Republican nominee or fracture the coalition. But the fact that Republicans are fighting over who gets to lead the race — instead of fighting to stay relevant — tells you everything about where the landscape has shifted.
Why California Is Vulnerable
California’s problems aren’t theoretical. They’re on every gas station sign, every rent check, every insurance bill, and every highway overpass where someone is living in a tent.
Gas prices are the highest in the nation — with fuel now being imported through the Bahamas because the state regulated its own refining capacity out of existence. The 911 system doesn’t work after $450 million in upgrades. The high-speed rail is a $100 billion ghost train. Homelessness increased 22% despite $32 billion in spending. The budget deficit is in the tens of billions. Crime remains a daily concern in major cities. And the state’s most productive residents and businesses continue leaving for Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and anywhere else that doesn’t punish success.
Gavin Newsom spent eight years creating this mess. Whoever replaces him inherits it. And for the first time, California voters appear to be considering the possibility that the party that created every one of these problems might not be the one to fix them.
The Swalwell Factor
Eric Swalwell — the congressman best known for his relationship with a suspected Chinese spy and his theatrical performances at congressional hearings — is the leading Democrat. At 14%. In California. In a field of ten-plus Democrats.
That’s not a frontrunner. That’s a placeholder. Swalwell’s ceiling is low, his negatives are high, and his profile outside of cable news hits is thin. Katie Porter, once considered a progressive star, is at 10% and falling. Tom Steyer — the billionaire who spent hundreds of millions on two failed presidential campaigns — is at 12% among Democrats, which tells you less about his appeal and more about the desperation of the field.
The Democrats don’t have a candidate. They have a crowd. And the crowd is splitting the vote into pieces too small to compete with two Republicans who are, for the first time in modern memory, actually leading.
The November Question
Four months is an eternity in politics. The primary hasn’t happened. The money hasn’t fully flowed. And California’s voter registration still heavily favors Democrats. Writing off blue team dominance in the state would be premature.
But something is happening. The numbers are real. The trend is real. The dissatisfaction is real. And for Republicans, the opportunity is historic.
California voters have watched their state become more expensive, more dangerous, more dysfunctional, and more hostile to the people who built it — all under one-party Democratic rule. The polls suggest that a critical mass of them are ready to try something different.
Whether Republicans can capitalize on it depends on whether they unite behind one candidate or tear each other apart fighting for the privilege. The door is open. The question is whether they walk through it together or get stuck arguing in the doorway.