The upcoming Arizona Senate race got a major shake-up January 8th when former Sheriff Joe Arpaio announced that he would run for the seat.
The man who models himself as “America’s toughest sheriff” is set to join a field of Republican candidates that already includes former state senator Kelli Ward, and is likely to include the current polling frontrunner Martha McSally.
Announcing that he would run for Senate is certainly an interesting turn of events for Arpaio – it wasn’t that long ago that Arpaio was scheduled to serve a jail sentence for criminal contempt before Trump issued him a Presidential pardon. At the time of his pardon, the White House issued a statement which said, “Throughout his time as sheriff, Arpaio continued his life’s work of protecting the public from the scourges of crime and illegal immigration. Sheriff Joe Arpaio is now 85 years old, and after more than 50 years of admirable service to our nation, he is (a) worthy candidate for a presidential pardon.”
In his statement where he announced his candidacy, Arpaio said, “I am running for the U.S. Senate from the Great State of Arizona, for one unwavering reason: to support the agenda and policies of President Donald Trump in his mission to Make America Great Again.”
Of course, given the fact that Arpaio was pardoned from a jail sentence combined with his hardline stance on immigration and his history of making the jails in Maricopa County some of the toughest, most miserable jails in the country, Joe Arpaio is no doubt going to run into a lot of controversy and criticism in his bid to make it to the Senate.
The question is, will it matter? If early polling is any indication, it may not. A poll from ABC15/OHPI shows Arpaio in a statistical tie for first place with Martha McSally. In this poll, Arpaio garners 29% of the vote compared to McSally’s 31% and Kelli Ward’s 25%.
What’s even more interesting, though, is how much the calculus changes based on the endorsements that each of these candidates might receive. In a hypothetical scenario where Donald Trump – Arpaio’s most likely and certainly largest potential supporter – choose to endorse him, Arpaio’s poll numbers place him comfortably in first place in the primary with 35% of the vote. Meanwhile, a McConnell endorsement would keep McSally polling relatively the same while an endorsement by the embattled Steve Bannon would actually hurt Kelli Ward’s chances considerably, dropping her down to just 12% in the hypothetical scenario where she is endorsed by Bannon, McSally is endorsed by McConnell, and Arpaio is endorsed by Trump.
Of course, controversial candidates typically have a much easier time winning a primary than they do winning a general election, and even if Arpaio manages to win the Republican nomination in Arizona, whether or not he would have a good chance of winning the general remains a big question mark.
Arpaio’s potential to win the primary combined with his likelihood of losing the general election has many Republican strategists worried.
“For the GOP, it’s a disaster if Arpaio wins (the primary),” said Republican Tyler Montague, who runs the Arizona Public Integrity Alliance. “His loss for the sheriff’s race is a bellwether for his Senate race in a general election.”
Due to this, many Democrats in Arizona see Arpaio’s Senate run as a gift, giving them a real chance at taking a seat Democrats haven’t been able to hold for the past thirty years. Granted, Democrats said the same thing during the Presidential primaries when Trump was leading, and we all know how that turned out.
In the meantime, Arpaio’s chances of winning the primary hinge heavily on whether or not he can successfully court a Trump endorsement. There’s no reason for Trump not to like Arpaio – the two have a lot in common – however, Trump has shown a tendency to shy away from candidates that he fears won’t win the general, which is what lead to him endorsing Luther Strange over Roy Moore in the recent Alabama special election.
If Trump does choose to endorse, Arpaio, though, it’ll make for yet another twist at a time when we thought politics couldn’t possibly get any more bizarre.
~ Conservative Zone
I like Ward, think McSally is a rino, and consider Joe a known immigration supporter. Arpaio will have my vote because I know him and where he stands. And I can assure everyone the establishment hates him if they are rino or dem wit. Vote Joe, he is a true patriot and a fighter. He will give congress a big shake up especially in the senate where it is needed the most.
If elected, Joe will be what? 91-92 at the end of the term. McSally HAS been endorsed by RINO McConnell’s people and Kelli has been attacked by them. Arpaio has too much baggage. Seems to me that if Joe gets the nomination, we will probably lose the seat.
Kelli is at least just as good as Joe on immigration. Joe would be of much more help in a supporting role for Ward than he would be as a candidate. Arpaio needs to sit this one out.
SamFox
Arpaio is a great lawman and will be a great senator. I’m truly sorry. that, as a a New Yorker, I can’t vote for him.but will contribute what I can afford to his campaign.
Arpaio is a great lawman and will be a great senator. I’m truly sorry. that, as a a New Yorker, I can’t vote for him.but will contribute what I can afford to his campaign.
Reply
Joe please help President Trump “DRAIN THE SWAMP” START WITH VETTING BARRY SOETORO AND THE DRAINING WILL BE A LOT FASTER
Steve…I say Amen to your statement. I donated to him as sheriff, although he lost because the liberals had more money than us deplorables but I truly would like to see him win a Senate seat. I will donate to his cause again, hopefully it will help.
None better!
This is stupid, stupid, stupid for an 85 y/o man running for an office as important as this election!!! I like the good sheriff but his day has passed. He should throw his support to one of the ladies that are running in the primary.
Until your dead, age should have little to do with it unless otherwise experiencing troublesome health issues.
No, you’re the stupid one.
Charles T is right. Joe’s time has come and gone.
SamFox
Since I am not from Arizona, my comment has no weight. However, as an opinion, we need the tough stances of men like President Trump and former Sheriff Arpaio to get illegal immigration under control. Of all States, Arizona has experienced likely more border crossings of illegal immigrants into that State than any other to the fear of Arizona residents residing anywhere near the Mexican border. Accompanying too many of those illegal immigrants were those who were responsible for what could be considered a narcotics epidemic in our country. Yes, Arpaio was tough and he did put fear into these people to not get caught – as it should be. Arizona needs a Senator who will be just as tough to protect their State as well as greater America.
Sounds like good ole boys club at work again.
Don’t know which is WORSE, Arpaio or McSally!
McSally is worse.
True dat Bob Uda! Since McConnell likes McSally & endorsed her, she can’t be good for US. Kelli Ward is the best ATM.
SamFox
Folks…Really that’s great with Donald duck Trumpt…support. Seriously!…Bring it on….means will get another Dem in the seat as what Happen to Moore in Alabama. He’s DDT kind of people but America already got wise to this malignant racist narcissist moron and his cronies. Put that in your taco and eat Shit-Head. God bless America and our troops. Adios!
Sherriff Joe won’t be elected he made some serious blunders while sheriff needs to retire
If McConnell endorses McSally, then we know who NOT to vote for! Arpaio has done a great job as a true American enforcing our laws against criminals and would be outstanding in Congress. His age is a blessing in that wisdom comes with age. He is a great supporter of our great President. I hope he wins!
I hope the citizens of Arizona will support Sheriff Arpaio. I believe he is a great and honest man. He has had to fight against all sorts of Federal corruption for many years. He had the courage to do the right thing and has set a great example for everyone in this Country.
Come on you citizens of Arizona, follow your conscience and the example courage displayed by the Sheriff and provide him with the opportunity to serve you and the rest of us at the Federal congressional level. I can just imagine how the Rino’s all over the country are shaking in their boots.
Most Republican Strategist quake at the site of their own shadow. Which is precisely why historically, as in the last 5 decades, the GOP has been imminently successful at losing important elections. Then when they do succeed the electorate gets little more than at best a Democrat lite! The strategist to this day still can’t explain Trump winning the primary let alone the general election. This is why many of us at the grass roots level have as step one; eliminate all present Republican Strategist. Step two support and elect candidates with integrity and principle. Step three, once elected support the candidate. Step four. sit back and enjoy the show as the GOP Establishment and Country Club Elite go insane. The liberal and Democrat zanies are just icing on the cake.
Let McSally go after McCain’s position in 2020. This is Joe Arpaio’s moment in history. Do not upset the apple cart.
Arpaio would be 92 years old at the end of his first term if he were to be elected. Col. McSally has shown, in her two terms in the House, that she is the candidate with the best interests of the nation , rather than herself, at heart.
Let McSally go after McCain’s position in 2020. This is Joe Arpaio’s moment in history. Do not upset the apple cart.
Go, Joe! You are going to win in a landslide. Just go for it with a vengeance the same way Trump went for the presidency. Visit all counties in Arizona–even those that appear as sure losers. Trump visited the sure win states for Hillary and won them over. Do the same with all of the voting districts in Arizona. Make Arizona Great Again (MAGA 2).
James Blair, you make a whole lot of sense. Sounds like an excellent strategy. Screw the GOP Establishment and Country Club Elites!
Sheriff Joe will flush the swamp.The left wing’s agenda is to flush America down the shit hole. Now their agenda is to shut down our government and hold us hostage for DACA.They were not hired to put people that are not here the legal way first.America First,always first.
Unfortunately, I do not live in AZ……but I WOULD VOTE FOR HIM IF I COULD !!!! He has my utmost respect !!! GO, JOE, GO !!
I support Joe. Good luck to him.
The false alarm in Hawaii was staged by the left to try to blame it on Trump and away public opinion. Anyone who can’t see that is just ignorant or plain stupid. Trump had nothing to do with it.
Well, as much as I admire the Sheriff, at 85, I feel he’s too old for the job. And, Dims will make his life miserable, & so will McConnell & HIS minions. Same thing that happened to Roy Moore in Al. McConnell would have rather lost a seat than to have to accept the Judge in the Senate. And, I about bet that he doesn’t like the Sheriff too much either. He wants toadies under him, not men, or women, that will stand up to him.
Sharon, you nailed it! McConnell is a Trump obstructionist who endorsed McSally as well.
SamFox
I met apario In#2013 Great Man Not A Racist A Great Sheriff.He Always Told Me If I See Him To Please Say Hi .So If You Read This Hi AndI Hope To See You Again You Have My Support.
Listen, I’m a Joe Arpaio Fan, but isn’t the Sheriff 80-90 years old? I live in Arizona and think the Sheriff deserves a well deserved R&R, do some campin and fishin!
We need hundreds more like Joe Arpaio in our nation’s government. He would put and end to some of this lunacy that the Liberals are spitting up.